PV subsidies have been reduced for three weeks, but the price and demand of solar energy supply chain did not look as expected, and even a slight increase in the phenomenon. China’s non-ferrous metals industry association silicon industry branch (hereinafter referred to as “Silicon Industry Branch”) released data show that last week the domestic polysilicon prices continue to rise slightly, solar energy-class material offer range of 118,000 to 12.6 million / ton, the average price 12.23 million yuan / ton, up 0.33% WoW. First-class slag price of the transaction price range of 117,000 to 125,000 yuan / ton, the average price of 12.05 million / ton, up around 0.42% ring.
PV subsidies down the price of components after the reason will rise, there are two main reasons. First, the third quarter of the domestic PV market demand is still relatively strong. Second, the international market, especially by the “201” survey of the strong impact of the US market demand.
PV products prices fell almost negligible
It is worth mentioning that the end of June accounted for the global supply of polysilicon 20% of the leading manufacturers Poly HSBC polysilicon chip potential should rise 0.16 yuan / piece, the other major suppliers have followed up, resulting in battery prices fell instead of falling.
The end of June the reason why the price of polysilicon will rise there are two main reasons. First, domestic and international market demand. Second, most of the components before the enterprise raw materials are only prepared to mid-June, did not expect a strong market demand in late June, resulting in short-term shortage of raw materials.
In addition, there are some signals can also be seen in late June strong demand. Such as June 30, Tongwei Group’s Yongxiang 50,000 tons of high-purity crystalline silicon and supporting new energy projects in Leshan construction, the project investment of 8 billion yuan, after the completion of Yongxiang high purity crystal silicon production capacity will exceed 70,000 tons. Yongxiang is ranked among the top three high-purity crystal silicon production enterprises, large-scale increase in production capacity, means that the PV market outlook is still relatively good. At the same time, GCL-Poly and Central Photovoltaic materials are also recently announced a new expansion plans, are upstream silicon materials.
Into July, subsidies have been lowered, but polysilicon prices are still slightly higher.
In this regard, silicon industry analyst Liu Jing said that the main reason for the rise has two aspects. First, the first week of the first week of the domestic first-tier manufacturers Luoyang in silicon and Sichuan Yongxiang, South Korea OCI and Hanhua are affected by the maintenance of part of the supply; Second, the largest domestic and international sales of new energy has long been August 20 before the order Signed the end, so strong demand for the remaining market share is in other production enterprises, so the recent supply more tense.
Although the price of polycrystalline rose, but from mid-June began to cut some of the single crystal manufacturers prices. The main reason is that before the single crystal prices continued high, there is price space, coupled with the market demand for subsidies to polycrystalline-based, in fact, take the initiative to cut prices in order to seize market share. At present, there are still some price control of the monocrystalline silicon wings, and there are overseas demand enough to support sales, and with the leader of the start of the base, the future price of single crystal price will not be too large, there may be a rebound.
From the current market analysis, the domestic short-term domestic PV module market will also be in a state of short supply, even to the fourth quarter of domestic and international demand for photovoltaic market will not happen much change. Therefore, the third and fourth quarter, the possibility of a substantial decline in the price of photovoltaic products is very small.
Many factors to support the second half of the domestic PV market development
As we all know, last year from January PV power plant rush has begun.
Compared with last year, this year, photovoltaic industry rally has emerged two new features. The first is the start of the official start time point late. Although the first quarter of the new PV installed capacity and the same period last year, but the tide is really from the beginning of late April. Followed by the supply and demand situation is more tight. The market had generally expected for the first half of this year’s rush is not high, that will be lower than the demand for the same period last year, coupled with the beginning of this year’s equipment began late, power plant developers generally poor stocking, and component manufacturers are also full load Production and inventory is almost zero.
In fact, this year’s new features of the rush from the photovoltaic products, the average price changes can be seen. For example, polysilicon prices this year, after the beginning of the beginning of March due to short-term weakening market demand led to the rapid decline from the beginning of late April prices rebounded. Last year, after the decline in polysilicon prices in January, prices rebounded in late February.
According to the National Renewable Energy Center is expected this year 1 to 6 months, China’s new PV installed capacity may reach 24 GW, of which only in June will be installed capacity to 13 GW.
“Tell the truth, if a month’s time to install 13 Giva, all unrealistic.” A domestic photovoltaic power plant investors told reporters that the current domestic components and photovoltaic inverter manufacturers in July a considerable part of the order in fact Is used to meet the post-June 30 deferred project needs.
8 to 9 months, the domestic first-line components manufacturers and inverter manufacturers will be used to meet the capacity of the second installment of the leading manufacturers 5.5 giva (September 30 before the grid) needs. Coupled with the rapid development of distributed photovoltaic this year, including PV poverty alleviation, the second half of the distributed PV market size will be at least about 6 GW demand.
In addition, Trina Solar vice president Yin Rongfang said, “from the capacity structure, the original thought that the leader plan will be implemented before June 30, but now clearly the majority to September 30. From this perspective, The second half of the project can not be completed in the second quarter, will be completed in the third quarter, therefore, the market will not appear low, much better than originally expected; from a global perspective, China and overseas markets just peak, for some purely dependent on the Chinese market enterprises May be a greater impact, while the global enterprises can achieve the global balance of production capacity.On the whole, this year the third and fourth quarter of the PV market will not be as low as last year. “In summary, it is easy to see that the second half Many favorable factors to support the development of domestic PV market.
The third quarter of the international market demand is relatively strong
The third quarter is not only strong domestic market demand, and the global market demand is also very strong. Which is particularly evident in the United States.
It is understood that on April 26 this year, the United States Suniva to “Trade Act of 1974,” the “201” clause based on the United States International Trade Commission (ITC) to sue for all imports to the United States of crystalline silicon photovoltaic cells and Component initiated a global safeguards investigation. Obviously, the “201” clause will make the cost of photovoltaic products downstream of the United States, a direct impact on the interests of US domestic PV plant investors, which also makes the recent US component demand surge.
As a result of the “201” terms of the investigation, Trina, Jing O and other overseas factories, some of the recent foreign shipments are mainly used to meet the US market orders. At the same time, also make Taiwan silicon chip in short supply, resulting in upstream prices. The current US users can afford the price of components in the 0.45 US dollars or even higher, this price of mainland China component manufacturers have the opportunity to join the fight for US orders.
EnergyTrend said that due to the “201” terms of the survey, Taiwan and China outside the market price of solar energy may be different trends, is expected to remain high prices in September.
“At present, GCL-Poly polysilicon, silicon and other orders are more adequate, in July this year, the production plan is also full of Dangxin silicon which overseas market supply accounted for 60% of the company’s overall silicon supply. Xie Xin Group Chairman Zhu Gongshan said that domestic demand is stable, the arrival of overseas markets season, are the third quarter of the PV market demand continues to strengthen the reasons.
In addition, Artes chairman Qu Xiaohua said that from now on, the third quarter of the PV market trends are better, including China, the United States, Japan, India and other places are more balanced. Europe has experienced a decline in PV markets over the past few years, but this year there has been a rebound in the trend, especially in the distributed photovoltaic power generation has strong signs, including Spain and Germany, Central Europe and other markets have good performance.